Acquisition Market Outlook

The timing of an exit is naturally influenced by overall activity levels in the market, and today’s market outlook for acquisitions is mixed. The pace of merger and acquisition activity has slowed down somewhat, but the picture is far from bleak. Large strategic companies continue to grow through acquisition. Private equity investors still have capital and are looking for opportunities to put it to work. Owners of private companies are looking for timely exit strategies, and prices are still strong for high-quality assets.

While there were several high-profile deals in 2008, the volume of software acquisitions M&A transactions decreased from the previous year. Fewer large-scale transactions occurred, while middle-market deals were more prevalent.

M&A Market Dynamics

Valuations were generally steady. EBITDA values in 2008 were down less than 2% year over year, and 2008’s median EBITDA multiple remained higher than 2006. Buyers still seem willing to pay solid prices for attractive acquisitions.

What are the characteristics of software industry acquisition activity thus far in 2009?

M&A Market Dynamics - First Half

Overall transaction volume dropped 10% from the same period in 2008, and aggregate transaction value dropped 27%. On the other hand, large companies like Oracle and IBM remained very active, and most people I talk to expect the acquisition market to rebound somewhat in the middle of 2010.

BerkeryNoyes provides merger and acquisition services for middle market companies. Each year they publish reports on trends in acquisitions for key industries. Most of the research for today’s post was drawn from information on their site, which is included in the 20/20 Outlook blogroll.

Build a Viable Business, or Build Toward an Exit?

If you’re a CEO, board member, or investor in a high tech company, growing shareholder value is a top priority.  The obvious challenge is taking the right steps and avoiding the wrong ones. Two divergent views on how to grow value are commonly held:

  1. Focus on growing a viable business and let the exit take care of itself, and
  2. Base each corporate decision on your targeted exit strategy.

Business v. Exit

For years I was certain that the former view was the best one. Simply keep evolving the business with desirable products and services offered at a reasonable price with good support, then at some point you’ll be acquired or else the conditions will be right for an IPO.

In today’s increasingly competitive environment, I’ve reconsidered that position. Most companies find that an IPO is out of the question for now, so if they articulate an exit strategy, it’s “to be acquired.” While building the business continues to be important, the complexity of the current market landscape and, even more importantly, the speed at which the market and market perceptions change, demands a more sophisticated approach.

Taking a stand at either end of the continuum above can result in failing to reach the preferred exit. If you focus only on growing a viable business, you may survive but you may not trigger the financial event that the investors and shareholders want to occur. On the other hand, if you focus solely on the exit, the business can suffer and your company may be eliminated from consideration by potential acquirers.

The purpose of 20/20 Outlook is to ensure that the proper balance between these extreme positions is achieved, i.e. that the company’s value increases through relationships with potential acquirers and potential acquisitions while you continue to grow the business. The process defines clear steps that enable you to (1) view your company through the eyes of potential acquirers and potential acquisitions, (2) define a realistic exit strategy, (3) align your product strategy in light of what you’ve learned, and (4) define and execute partnerships that move you closer to an exit.

More on this next time. In the meantime, additional information about 20/20 Outlook can be found at www.2020outlook.com.

Introducing 20/20 Outlook

Near the end of 2008 after laboring in high tech companies for over 30 years, it became clear that some personal reinvention was in order. Wide-ranging experience in a multitude of roles yielded a perspective that friends have described as unique, and I wanted to combine what I’d learned in three leadership areas – M&A, product strategy, and partnerships – into a process that would benefit small to medium organizations.

In my role as chief marketing officer at Infoglide Software, I’m fortunate to work for Mike Shultz, a talented and experienced serial CEO who has also become a trusted friend. When I told him about my desire to help multiple companies, he was immediately supportive and was key in crystallizing the idea of 20/20 Outlook. He even offered to let me develop and prove the system by applying it at Infoglide.

Earlier this year, the 20/20 Outlook process began to evolve. While the goal of aligning efforts across the organization to support an exit strategy was clear from the beginning, defining the steps of this new methodology took significant thought and interaction with the management team before it began falling into place. 20/20 Outlook will continue to evolve but has already proven to be quite valuable in its current state.

In future posts, I’ll share thoughts and ideas here about how the process works and how it can benefit other companies. I hope you’ll come along for the ride and join in the discussion!

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