What’s New for 2011

The move to share the 20/20 Outlook process is accelerating in 2011!

First, we were asked to develop a sidebar article for the cover feature of the Jan/Feb issue of TexasCEO magazine. Watch for a notification here when it’s available, plus a tweet and a LinkedIn update. (By the way, the twitter name is @2020outlook, and buttons for email, LinkedIn, Skype, RSS, and twitter can be found in the upper right corner of the 20/20 Outlook web site.)

Secondly, chapters of a book in process will soon start showing up on a new blog site that’s under development. Each chapter will feature a dialog between a new CEO and their mentor, with each conversation based on a principle contributed by a different serial CEO friend.

After leading companies to success for years, serial CEOs develop valuable principles that don’t often make it into business school classes. Having repeatedly seen the same situations and outcomes, he/she develops “intuition” in the form of simple rules of thumb for how to handle specific business circumstances.

This new site will help aspiring business leaders manage and grow their businesses by absorbing simple yet profound lessons from successful serial CEOs.  It offers these CEOs a chance to give back by sharing these precious principles  with new and aspiring business leaders. Written in the form of a dialog between a new CEO and their mentor, some are amusing and some are painful, yet each offers a  valuable lesson about managing a business to new levels of success.

Just drop an email to bob@2020outlook.com if you’d like to see new chapters as they emerge every few weeks. If you choose to, you’ll be able to interact with the CEOs and others who will comment on and discuss the chapters.

We ‘ll be sure and let you know when the new blog site is ready.

Happy New Year!

Every Portfolio Has (at least) One

Every private equity and venture capitalist investor I talk to has at least one portfolio company that stalls out. The company survives the original investment rounds to become an “established” business. Soon thereafter, the management team opts to focus on a single aspect of the business, e.g., “we’re going to focus on growing the customer base.” The monthly mantra becomes “keep the pedal down on sales, manage operational issues, and carefully manage cash.”

These activities are crucial to survival, yet the danger is that the CEO and management team can get comfortable working in the business and forget to work on the business. Neglecting to put a rational plan and adequate resources in place to enhance company value (including growing revenue) often leads to an abrupt plateauing of valuation that takes months and even years to recover from.

Initiating and maintaining productive relationships with relevant organizations at the right time establishes a decision-making context that maximizes the valuation of technology businesses. Created specifically to increase shareholder value, the 20/20 Outlook process enables a CEO to:

  1. view company value through the lens of potential acquirers,
  2. adjust market strategy and offerings accordingly, and
  3. initiate and maintain strong ties with key companies that can drive valuations ever higher.

The key is to intervene well in advance of a slowdown and put an enlightened process in place. Not doing so risks the ultimate loss of mega dollars and significant market share.

Surprise: Clients Tell It Best

It’s been awhile since the last post was published. Client deliverables, non-profit activities, and family priorities, as well as continual business development, have made it a hectic time.

The 20/20 elevator pitch is that “it is a process that helps a company get ready and stay ready for an exit,” but it’s more than that. While helping shoot some videos during that non-profit work, we were close to Infoglide’s offices, so I asked CEO Mike Shultz to stand in front of the camera and share his thoughts on his use of the 20/20 process.

Mike has started and sold several companies, which enables him to speak with authority in this 2:47 of unedited footage. With just one take, Mike captures the essence of the process better than any marketing firm I could have hired. Enjoy.

The Mystery of a Disciplined Process

“Mystery” and “process” aren’t often used together. A process is commonly thought of as a way to replace mysterious methods of accomplishing a goal with a well-documented, step-by-step procedure that, if followed precisely, always produces the desired result.

CEOs can be mystified when a competitor with seemingly inferior products and services is acquired by a larger company.  The response is, “Why not my company?” The answer often isn’t self-evident.

In his book A Whole New Mind, Daniel Pink proposes the need to combine left-brain analytical thinking with right-brain creative thinking for those who aspire to succeed in the 21st Century. They must combine both modes of thought in order to “connect the dots” faster than their competitors.  The 20/20 Outlook process demands right-brain and left-brain thinking from management teams who implement it.

A client CEO commented not long ago about how the process has precisely positioned his company for an exit. “At first we just wanted to determine where we fit in the marketplace. During the process, we identified twenty potential acquirers and then narrowed our focus to two industry groups. What we noticed over time was that a market for our products developed around those two groups as though the market was mysteriously growing toward us.”

The CEO came to realize that the illusion of the market coming to his company was the result of decisions he and his team made to follow the decision framework they had put in place. Now those decisions have put them in a position to achieve significant payoffs from relationships created using 20/20 Outlook thinking.

Important Indicators are Up

Because I help companies define an exit strategy and grow value accordingly, I’m always seeking better sources of data that capture the current state of the investment world. Pitchbook is one source that publishes particularly useful information about fundraising, investments, and exits. A recent Pitchbook presentation suggests that we’re on the verge of significant growth in private equity investment during the next year, and that’s good news companies moving toward an exit.

One factor mentioned in the Pitchbook prez is that capital overhang is high and growing. When that happens, valuations tend to increase because so much money is looking for a place to land and produce a return.

Additionally, chart below depicts that the number of quarterly private equity exits through corporate acquisitions, initial public offerings, and secondary sales is on the upswing after reaching a low in early 2009.

Finally, one of the best analysts in the business, Richard Davis of Needham and Company, commented in his newsletter that it’s been 25 years since he’s seen so many companies in a great position for an IPO.

Taken together, all these indicators suggest that, despite the continuing malaise in the broader economy, a CEO who keeps his/her company’s partnerships, product strategy, services, and partnerships aligned with potential acquirers can expect to see greater opportunity this year and through the next.

Clarity Affects the Bottom Line

Last week I spent a morning leading a management team through a strategic positioning session to achieve more clarity about their business. The next day I read an article containing this quote by the leader of a technology incubator:

My team and I probably saw, heard or read more than 200 business pitches last year. And after about 75 percent of them, we didn’t understand the businesses. I’m convinced that this is a primary cause of entrepreneurial failure. Every entrepreneur needs to be able to clearly and succinctly communicate the essence of his or her business to an intelligent stranger.

While it’s important for startups to have an elevator pitch, it’s equally important for the management team of an existing business to share a clear vision that provides a context for making business decisions. The lack of this understanding is so common among $10-50M companies that I’ve stopped being surprised when they can’t articulate a clear positioning statement. Why do you think so many companies have trouble with something so basic and so important? I have a theory.

Recently a CEO friend in Dallas shared the “PerformanceManagement” matrix below. While the origin is unclear, it’s a useful framework for examining issues, and it offers a clue as to why so many companies lack the clarity they need to operate efficiently.

Urgent Important Matrix

For many CEOs, sustaining an up-to-date picture of the company’s value in the market is either neglected or delegated to Marketing because it lacks urgency compared to operation issues and cost management. This falls under the heading of “Poor Planning.” The CEO’s number one priority is growing shareholder value, and clear strategic thinking contributes directly by enhancing the quality of important decisions affecting future value.

If you’re a CEO, do you stay on top of your company’s value in the eyes of players that matter, especially potential acquirers? Or will you leave this non-urgent critical issue unaddressed until the day you’re shocked to read that your closest competitor was just acquired by a company with whom they’d partnered?

Restart with the End in Mind

Chances are you’ve heard Stephen Covey’s Habit #2 in his classic self-help book called Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: “Begin with the end in mind.” Or said another way by the author of the Peter Principle, “If you don’t know where you’re going, you probably will end up somewhere else.”

When a business is launched, founders typically have a clear end in mind. A successful company survives the first couple of years and finds its way to profitability or at least breaks even. Then a critical point is encountered where the CEO’s focus on “where we’re going” can devolve into a focus on “staying alive.”

An early 20/20 Outlook post tagged the resulting condition as “The CEO Dilemma.” The CEO lets the pressure to fix operational issues and manage cash flow dictate a daily routine of addressing those needs and neglecting his/her responsibility to relentlessly consider how to grow shareholder value.  Working in instead of on the business becomes a comfortable norm.

If this sounds familiar, realize that you can hit the RESET button by employing the 20/20 Outlook process. Understand how simply saying “if I build a great business, I don’t need to worry about my exit strategy” can keep you from leading the pack among acquisition candidates in your market space.

Instead “restart with the end in mind” by considering the sources that contribute to the value of your company’s product and service offerings. Drill into how relationships with potential acquirers and potential acquisitions can unlock and grow that value. And create and implement a rational plan to align your company with other organizations that can help your business reach its full potential and move into a leadership position.

Technology M&A Is Accelerating

A few days ago, I posted links to interesting articles in an exit strategy update. Indications are that the next 12-18 months  will produce an increase in the acquisition of technology companies, so having an exit strategy in place and aligning with potential acquirers remains top of mind for CEOs. Let’s review some of the evidence.

One significant indicator is that tech companies have started using debt to raise capital. A recent WSJ article said that “the decision to take on debt breaks from tradition in tech, where companies have typically preferred to raise money by selling stock. Debt has become a more attractive fundraising option largely because interest rates are low… Turning to debt is an especially big change for software companies, which typically generate lots of cash and aren’t saddled with large one-time expenses like opening a factory.”

While the focus of the article was on the largest companies like Cisco, Microsoft, H-P, Oracle Corp., International Business Machines Corp., and Dell Inc. who raised more than $20 billion combined in 2009 selling bonds, smaller companies are following suit. Salesforce.com’s $575M debt offering and Adobe’s of $1.5B, both in January, mean that the acquisition drive is broadening.

Yesterday StreetInsider.com quoted an FBR Capital Markets report that “software vendors are flush with cash given the cashflow-rich nature of the software model and more than a handful of vendors have even recently raised additional capital.” The FBR Capital report even suggested some likely acquisitions:

So what should CEOs of smaller technology companies who want to grow shareholder value do? At a minimum, three things:

  1. Understand who your most likely acquirers are and keep the list up-to-date.
  2. Ensure that your company stays focused on activities that increase your attractiveness to those acquirers.
  3. Create partnerships with potential acquirers and other companies who make your company more compelling to those acquirers.

Whether you want to be acquired in the short term or the long term, your company’s value is in the eye of the beholder, and the most important beholders are acquirers.

The Reality of Being a CEO

Tactics is knowing what to do when there is something to do.
Strategy is knowing what to do when there is nothing to do.
– Savielly Tartakower

The reality of being a CEO differs in many ways from the popular conception. After many candid conversations with CEOs, it’s clear that the media portrayal of the CEO role as being glamorous, highly lucrative, and psychologically rewarding is incomplete at best. All of the above are true at least some of the time for many CEOs, yet when they’re being candid, most will tell you that it’s far from being chocolates and roses all the time.

In fact, one business leader laughingly told me that people don’t realize how often a CEO gets to “experience sheer terror.”  Many things can go wrong that adversely affect the business and ultimately impact CEO priority number one, i.e. increasing shareholder value. What moves are competitors taking that we can’t respond well to? What drivers in the economy threaten the willingness and ability of customers to stop buying? Is our own inability to execute holding us back? Do we have a realistic vision for growing the company?

An earlier post about “The CEO Dilemma” discussed these and other challenges. Many CEOs live life on a high wire, balancing operational issues, cost and cash management, a realistic vision for growth, productive business partnerships, market presence, go-to-market and sales strategies, and many other priorities. Contrary to the supremely confident leader portrayed on-screen, a CEO is not always sure what to do.

Should we pity the poor, downtrodden CEO? Hardly! Most tell me they can’t conceive having any different role. They love what they do and feel fortunate that they have the opportunity. At the same time, life at the top can be lonely. The buck always stops there. As the CEO, you ultimately have to make the big decisions. And sometimes it pays to get assistance.

Where do CEOs look for help? If they’re lucky, experienced individuals on their board of directors are able and willing to serve as sounding boards, yet the fiduciary nature of their relationship may limit those discussions. Alternatively, the CEO may have one or more friends who are or have been chief executives whom they can trust for advice.

Often CEOs are more isolated than they need to be. Organizations like Vistage, CEO Netweavers, and others have evolved to meet the needs of CEOs over the years.  They comprise CEOs who are willing to give time to help other CEOs with advice in a trusted environment, often facilitated by experienced serial CEOs. And, of course, there are independent trusted advisers who work individually with CEOs as well as with groups of CEOs to share expertise and experience that can help companies reach new levels of performance.

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